{"id":1394,"date":"2018-12-04T16:04:03","date_gmt":"2018-12-04T16:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/?p=1394"},"modified":"2023-06-21T09:26:52","modified_gmt":"2023-06-21T08:26:52","slug":"bright-sparks-and-black-swans-protecting-energy-networks-in-the-face-of-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/2018\/12\/04\/bright-sparks-and-black-swans-protecting-energy-networks-in-the-face-of-disaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Bright sparks and Black Swans: protecting energy networks in the face of disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If 2018 is remembered for anything (and a lot has happened this year), it will be the extreme weather.<\/p>\n<p>This was the year the UK experienced its longest sustained heatwave for 12 years, beginning just three months after the spring cold wave known as the Beast from the East froze our toes. Swapping from thermals to sandals in a matter of weeks is fairly unusual in the UK \u2013 but it was a trend seen across Europe, and further afield too.<\/p>\n<p>Japan recorded its highest temperatures in history \u2013 and also endured several typhoons that cut power to countless homes. The typhoon that hit the Philippines and South China in September was one of the worst to make landfall in years.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the US found itself trapped in a polar vortex with sub-zero temperatures at the start of the year, to be followed later in the year by the worst wildfires in California\u2019s history \u2013 wiping whole towns off the map and killing close to 90 people. Greece, too, was hit by devastating wildfires that left nearly 100 people dead.<\/p>\n<p>And to top it all, 2018 was the year the red sand dunes of the Sahara Desert were capped with a sprinkling of snow.<\/p>\n<h2>Four seasons in one day<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1395\" aria-labelledby=\"figcaption_attachment_1395\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1395 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-snow-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"university of manchester snow\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-snow-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-snow-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-snow-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-snow.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"figcaption_attachment_1395\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">North Campus during the 2018 cold wave.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Extreme weather puts lives at risk \u2013 not only during the event itself, but afterwards too. Heat, fires, storms and earthquakes that take out power networks can leave whole towns, cities and regions \u2013 quite literally \u2013 powerless. Occurrences like this are known as \u2018Black Swan\u2019 events, because they come as a surprise and have a major impact.<\/p>\n<p>With climate change linked to many cases of extreme weather, events like this aren\u2019t going away. Indeed, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2018\/nov\/27\/world-triple-efforts-climate-change-un-global-warming\">report from the UN last week<\/a> urged that governments triple their efforts to reduce emissions, or face a climate catastrophe (and you\u2019ll be pleased to hear <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/2018\/11\/22\/decarbonising-manchester\/\">Manchester is already making great strides in its own carbon fight<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>While the UK experienced some of its most extreme weather on record this year, there are other countries for which extreme weather events are a regular ordeal. Take Chile \u2013 the country is just over 100 miles wide, but more than 2.5 thousand miles long, and it\u2019s home to seven major climate subtypes. These range from desert heat in the north to glaciers in the south.<\/p>\n<p>Chile also sits at the meeting point of three large tectonic plates. For this reason, major earthquakes are a common occurrence. As if that wasn\u2019t enough, the country is also home to more than 600 volcanos, many of which are active.<\/p>\n<p>So if you\u2019re going to pick a country where there\u2019s a very real \u2013 and frequent \u2013 risk of extreme weather events knocking out the power network, it\u2019s Chile. While the power going in your home can be a nuisance, when an electricity blackout hits an entire community, it can have an impact on its economy; its social stability; its security. While environmental hazards may be a rare threat, the consequences of not planning for them can be disastrous when they do hit.<\/p>\n<p>However, a group that includes scientists from The University of Manchester are helping to strengthen the country\u2019s energy infrastructure to withstand disaster \u2013 and the model they\u2019ve created could become the basis for energy network risk assessment and planning in other countries too.<\/p>\n<h2>Clipping the wings of Black Swan events<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1400\" aria-labelledby=\"figcaption_attachment_1400\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1400 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-team-1-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"newton fund awards winners\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-team-1-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-team-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-team-1-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/59\/2018\/12\/Extreme-weather-team-1.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"figcaption_attachment_1400\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Newton Fund prize-winning team. From L to R: Dr Mathaios Panteli, Sir Venki Ramakrishnan, Dr Rodrigo Moreno and Prof Pierluigi Mancarella.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Pierluigi Mancarella, Professor of Smart Energy Systems at The University of Manchester\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eee.manchester.ac.uk\/\">School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering<\/a>, and Dr\u00a0Mathaios Panteli, Lecturer in Power Systems at the same school, are part of a team that this week was awarded the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newtonfund.ac.uk\/newtonprize\/\">Newton Prize<\/a>. The prize recognises research and innovation that helps support economic development and social welfare in the Newton Fund\u2019s 17 partner countries.<\/p>\n<p>Sir Venki Ramakrishnan,\u00a0Newton Prize Committee Chair, President of the Royal Society and Nobel Laureate, said: \u201cScience and innovation often depends on working in partnership across the globe: sharing knowledge and resources to enhance our understanding and make discoveries with the potential to change lives.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s certainly the case with Prof Mancarella and Dr Panteli\u2019s winning contribution. Working in the UK and Chile, the team have used mathematical models to design and develop a framework that will strengthen Chile\u2019s power systems \u2013 as well as those in other countries vulnerable to environmental and climate hazards. Using this framework, Chile\u2019s energy providers will be better equipped to either reduce or prevent entirely any large-scale electricity outages following Black Swan events.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to mitigating the outcome of a disaster, the new framework can help Chile in other ways. By using the framework to inform planning practices, Chile\u2019s energy networks will be low-carbon, more cost-effective and stronger.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is clearly still a lot to do, and building a resilient electrical power infrastructure is a daunting task that involves technical and commercial considerations,\u201d the team write in a <a href=\"http:\/\/theinstitute.ieee.org\/technology-topics\/power-and-energy\/resiliency-of-power-systems-to-black-swan-hazards-how-ready-are-we\">recent article<\/a>. \u201cYes, there are challenges to overcome with many of the technologies, but there are also benefits that are still to be fully exploited.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The team is clear that the need to shift to a more resiliency-oriented, risk-based engineering\u00a0model is becoming \u201cmore critical\u201d. With the proven success of this approach in Chile and the recognition of the Newton Fund, that shift looks more likely than ever.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Words \u2013 Hayley Cox<\/p>\n<p>Images \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/sumarieslabber\/35004747991\/in\/photolist-Vkfu2M-27ATVnK-rfnVsw-f9iHif-8qWPBz-26dvoDD-2aFpL1v-fdM8sT-6yWZBQ-74bQ5S-9WJjsA-23obexb-27VuNwG-24g3qwf-29i5Jy4-abD8sf-XrQCSA-TzvNX7-cRg2Pm-oNRnDE-aiRbfc-pcuiR2-KhcpJZ-4BK86b-d6MeYf-a3MhGm-aiR8gX-28CQngQ-cjj83u-rnbD8L-28Nsy1N-6tDE1u-a44jRX-27VuG91-XpRSZ1-28M6tew-YJFQrg-G1EvJn-eQn916-vzT2CA-Jns8aW-a47zeD-Yr1na3-4TEV4j-543NBg-oo3WTN-28jRgid-9D4yvz-7djRGf-28sXt8q\">Sumarie Slabber<\/a>, Hayley Cox, Dr\u00a0Mathaios Panteli<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If 2018 is remembered for anything (and a lot has happened this year), it will be the extreme weather. This was the year the UK experienced its longest sustained heatwave for 12 years, beginning just three months after the spring cold wave known as the Beast from the East froze our toes. Swapping from thermals [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":1397,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[210,339,211],"tags":[206,216,123,228,229],"class_list":{"0":"post-1394","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-departments","8":"category-power-and-energy-networks","9":"category-research-impact-and-institutes","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-electrical-and-electronic-engineering","12":"tag-environmental-science","13":"tag-extreme-weather","14":"tag-power-network","15":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bright sparks and Black Swans: protecting energy networks in the face of disaster - Science and Engineering<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mub.eps.manchester.ac.uk\/science-engineering\/2018\/12\/04\/bright-sparks-and-black-swans-protecting-energy-networks-in-the-face-of-disaster\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bright sparks and Black Swans: protecting energy networks in the face of disaster - Science and Engineering\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If 2018 is remembered for anything (and a lot has happened this year), it will be the extreme weather. This was the year the UK experienced its longest sustained heatwave for 12 years, beginning just three months after the spring cold wave known as the Beast from the East froze our toes. 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